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Ok, people, place yer bets. I didn’t think it was possible a month ago, but it looks like Romney is going to take Iowa, then sweep the nomination up pretty quickly. There’ll be a core group of evangelicals who won’t vote for a Mormon; and Tea Partiers who won’t go for a moderate establishment candidate; but hatred for Obama is going to trump those worries for enough voters to give Mitt the win.
I find it particularly hilarious that Obama is going to get a moderate Republican nominated, thereby completely screwing the hopes and dreams of the Tea Party having Our Very Own President. I do love politics.
Romney wins, Santorum gets the rest of the evangelicals, Paul the remaining Tea Partiers. 4. Bachmann. 5. Newt, whom Iowa finally remembered they despise.
The point is that the Left/press always like to set-up the false-premise about the “Far Right” controlling the Republican Party, so that they can then chortle when it turns out to be untrue .. which it never was. It allows them to feel extra-victorious over a situation that only exists in their minds. Nice work if you can get it.
I agree, but MY point is that the Tea Party had different plans this year. Am I not making this clear? I feel like there’s two parallel, but slightly different, conversations going on here.
Here’s a neat video for you. The best part is at the end when the OWSer trips and falls. At least, that was my favorite moment. “You are part of the 1%, you are…”
I don’t think Romney would go back to Iowa and campaign as aggressively as he has if his internal polls didn’t show something good breaking for him. He’s risking a bit by doing so since NH is in the bag and he could wave off an Iowa second/third place finish.
Why take the chance?
I’ll go with:
1) Romney
2) Santorum or Paul
3) Paul or Santorum
4) Gingrich
5) Bachmann
So I cheated. I’ll decline the flowers if I win.
I would take a good Bollywood movie. Those are fun to watch.
A distinction about the Iowa conversation: The nominee invariably is an establishment Republican, but the winner of Iowa often isn’t. Everybody knows Romney will clean up in NH, but leading the polls in Iowa is a surprise for me.
My one dark horse prediction is that caucus goers revolt at the last minute, and throw it to Santorum just to make a statement. It could happen.
I probably should have Perry in Bachmann’s slot, but if I start second-guessing, I’ll be doing it ’til the polls close, and everyone here will run me outta Dodge.
-Des Moines, Iowa, tuesday: High 36, partly cloudy.-
That’s short-sleeved weather in Iowa. Plenty warm enough for the grandparents to shake off their aches and pains and go stand with Romney… but it’s also plenty warm enough for the barely-old-enough & not-always-reliable grandson to scratch his _alls and go vote for Paul.
Thus:
1. Romney
2. Paul
3. Santorum
4. Perry
5. Gingrich
6. Bachmann
The top three could land in any order. Santorum is surging and Paul and Romney aren’t.
All those Huckabee evangelical voters are looking for a place to land and Bachmann is in free-fall, Gingrich is on his third wife and Perry is just too dumb to take seriously.
Santorum looks good in a sweater-vest and sounds rational; at least to Iowan caucus voters; kind of a cross between Mr. Rogers and Joel Osteen.
I know that Santorum has momentum, but he was so far down, I can’t imagine it taking him to the top. Paul is also in a fall (whether the polls yet show that or not). Mitt is creeping up, and as the rest of the field eats itself, I think he’ll be the last man standing comfortably.
But who knows? I still say your picks give thebiggest payout. If you’re right, you get 5 times the prize (nothing) as I’ll get (still nothing).
Eh, I’m leaning towards a Santorum win now. If you’re an Iowa conservative, why wouldn’t you want to stave off The Romney Inevitability with a little news value of your own? They know Mitt’s gonna clean up in NH, and an Iowa win leading up to it seals the deal. I don’t see Iowans being comfortable with that.
Fox broadcast net has its own NYE thing going but using FNC talent every so often. I’m surprised they have more than one music stage and not simulcasting.
There really was only one way to improve upon Bieber’s performance of ‘Let It Be’, and that was to follow it with a Cee Lo Green rendition of ‘Imagine’. #shootmenowandmakeitquick
MSNBC’s New Years Resolution should be to give Veronica De La Cruz her own show. I vote for putting her on at 3, replacing Martin Basir’s hour long snarkfest.
“Chris Wallace goes one on one with Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry…”
Just read this little blurb from Fox.
Who the hell cares about ANY of these people at this point? My cat (Missy) is available; she is equally relevant to the race for POTUS at this point. Fox would get better ratings with a test pattern.
Santorum looks to be the new Iowa flavour of the week. To use a NASCAR analogy he’s this weeks ‘lucky dog’. The fact he hasn’t been vetted yet will allow him to be the big winner on Tuesday.
“who does he “genuinely hate”?”
^ my guess is anyone in the LBGT community; although that could be said for anyone; except Huntsman; in this years Republican race.
This tells me he on a very short leash for his Dayside show and will be unlikely to survive the year as a permanent Dayside host. In fact I’d be surprised to see him make it to this summer.
I doubt Sen. Santorum could honestly characterise his feelings regarding the LGBTs as “hate”. Disagreeing with his viewpoint is perfectly legit but calling it “hate” is a bit much.
Secondly, thank you for adopting my & Outsider’s spelling of the word “flavour”, Fritz.
I might agree about Perry and Bachmann, but Paul is careening toward a Libertarian candidacy that will inevitably reelect Obama. People need to know as much about him as humanly possible. He’s been skating on the “nice old man” routine for entirely too long.
Well, Laura, praise the Lord re: the democrats/union (same thing) and their push for a photo ID for voting. So great – this will affect exactly TWO voters, since RI is so puny.
But let’s see how this would play out in NY or CA. Forget it!
December 30, 2011 at 2:59 pm
Ok, people, place yer bets. I didn’t think it was possible a month ago, but it looks like Romney is going to take Iowa, then sweep the nomination up pretty quickly. There’ll be a core group of evangelicals who won’t vote for a Mormon; and Tea Partiers who won’t go for a moderate establishment candidate; but hatred for Obama is going to trump those worries for enough voters to give Mitt the win.
I find it particularly hilarious that Obama is going to get a moderate Republican nominated, thereby completely screwing the hopes and dreams of the Tea Party having Our Very Own President. I do love politics.
Romney wins, Santorum gets the rest of the evangelicals, Paul the remaining Tea Partiers. 4. Bachmann. 5. Newt, whom Iowa finally remembered they despise.
December 30, 2011 at 3:07 pm
Every four years we hear that the “far right” controls the Republican primaries.
And every four years the “far right” candidate fails to win the nomination.
Wished they stop using that story line.
December 30, 2011 at 3:10 pm
The advent of the Tea Party was a direct result of McCain and Obama. They clearly intended to make “the far right” the winner this time.
December 30, 2011 at 3:15 pm
But the Tea Party doesn’t control the party.
We now see that.
Mitt Romney’s not their candidate.
December 30, 2011 at 3:17 pm
My bet is on Romney winning the nomination but the majority wont be happy, like at all.
December 30, 2011 at 3:21 pm
In order for this to work so we can look back next Wed. to see how we all did, ya gotta bet.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Capiche?
December 30, 2011 at 3:32 pm
First prize is some Mumbai flowers?
Gee, I dunno…..
December 30, 2011 at 3:35 pm
– Every four years –
The point is that the Left/press always like to set-up the false-premise about the “Far Right” controlling the Republican Party, so that they can then chortle when it turns out to be untrue .. which it never was. It allows them to feel extra-victorious over a situation that only exists in their minds. Nice work if you can get it.
December 30, 2011 at 3:41 pm
I agree, but MY point is that the Tea Party had different plans this year. Am I not making this clear? I feel like there’s two parallel, but slightly different, conversations going on here.
December 30, 2011 at 3:42 pm
1) Romney
2) Santorum
3) Perry
4) Paul
5) Bachmann
6) Newt
December 30, 2011 at 3:43 pm
LS, you’re brutal. No wonder Newt’s crying.
December 30, 2011 at 3:51 pm
Perry in third would be something. It would eclipse Santorum’s second, which, if you had said that two months ago, would have sounded totally bonkers.
December 30, 2011 at 3:57 pm
well, I’m not great at these things so we’ll see.
Here’s a neat video for you. The best part is at the end when the OWSer trips and falls. At least, that was my favorite moment. “You are part of the 1%, you are…”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/12/30/christie_after_three_years_of_obama_we_are_hopeless_and_changeless.html
December 30, 2011 at 4:08 pm
I don’t think Romney would go back to Iowa and campaign as aggressively as he has if his internal polls didn’t show something good breaking for him. He’s risking a bit by doing so since NH is in the bag and he could wave off an Iowa second/third place finish.
Why take the chance?
I’ll go with:
1) Romney
2) Santorum or Paul
3) Paul or Santorum
4) Gingrich
5) Bachmann
So I cheated. I’ll decline the flowers if I win.
I would take a good Bollywood movie. Those are fun to watch.
December 30, 2011 at 4:22 pm
I’ve got Santorum and Paul in an interchangeable finish for 2nd/3rd, too. Predicting which gets which – assuming Romney wins – is impossible.
December 30, 2011 at 4:30 pm
1. Romney
2. Paul
3. Santorum
4. Gingrich
5. Perry
December 30, 2011 at 4:51 pm
I agree with Jacky.
December 30, 2011 at 5:55 pm
I don’t think Romney’s internal polls would be any better the those we’ve all seen all to often.
1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Santorum
4. Perry
5. Gingrich
And for the bonus round… Bachman drops out after Iowa.
December 30, 2011 at 5:56 pm
A distinction about the Iowa conversation: The nominee invariably is an establishment Republican, but the winner of Iowa often isn’t. Everybody knows Romney will clean up in NH, but leading the polls in Iowa is a surprise for me.
My one dark horse prediction is that caucus goers revolt at the last minute, and throw it to Santorum just to make a statement. It could happen.
December 30, 2011 at 5:58 pm
The minute that I heard that this list was in its 37th year, I wanted to know what the first one was. Boring, yeah.
http://www.lssu.edu/banished/archived_lists.php
December 30, 2011 at 6:06 pm
Detente!
December 30, 2011 at 6:15 pm
People have been kvetching about “nucular” since the beginning of time, more or less.
December 30, 2011 at 6:50 pm
What will the weather be like on caucus day? If it’s a full-blowin’ blizzard then Paul takes 1st place.
My guess is
4. Perry
5. Gingrich
6. Bachmann
1, 2, & 3 are irrelevant. Iowa’s purpose is to end campaigns and not to pick a winner.
December 30, 2011 at 7:03 pm
MY purpose was to see which ICNer came closest to predicting the outcome, but thanks for not playing.
December 30, 2011 at 7:09 pm
^ I know. Will play after I check the weather forecast.
December 30, 2011 at 7:13 pm
I probably should have Perry in Bachmann’s slot, but if I start second-guessing, I’ll be doing it ’til the polls close, and everyone here will run me outta Dodge.
December 30, 2011 at 7:19 pm
But you won’t leave so we’ll have to get the sheriff to shoot you.
December 30, 2011 at 7:32 pm
Not gonna work. I OWN the sheriff
December 30, 2011 at 10:12 pm
I concur w/”Jacky Boy’s” list, above.
Can we split the Mumbai flowers if we both win?
December 30, 2011 at 10:15 pm
^ No way. Cage match.
December 30, 2011 at 10:29 pm
While I do support the Tea Party, I realize that anyone who is 100% conservative cannot be elected. So I’m not in love w/Romney, but he’s OK with me.
My vote is “anyone but 0bama”, and Romney seems to be the one guy who can beat him.
December 30, 2011 at 10:34 pm
FRAUD! Get me O’Keefe..
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/acorn-holed-chris-hayes-calls-out-newt-gingrichs-voter-fraud-hypocrisy/
December 31, 2011 at 12:56 am
Romney’s starting to get Crazy Eyes. Man needs a nap.
December 31, 2011 at 1:51 am
Des Moines, Iowa, tuesday: High 36, partly cloudy. Sorry Paulbots.
December 31, 2011 at 5:37 am
1. Santorum – 24%
2. Paul.- 23%
3. Romney – 22%
4. Perry – 14%
5. Gingrich – 9%
6. Bachmann – 5%
7. Other – 3%
December 31, 2011 at 7:25 am
Wow Fritz… really rolling the dice on that one!
Although if you’re right, I assume your payout will be HUGE!
December 31, 2011 at 7:47 am
-Des Moines, Iowa, tuesday: High 36, partly cloudy.-
That’s short-sleeved weather in Iowa. Plenty warm enough for the grandparents to shake off their aches and pains and go stand with Romney… but it’s also plenty warm enough for the barely-old-enough & not-always-reliable grandson to scratch his _alls and go vote for Paul.
Thus:
1. Romney
2. Paul
3. Santorum
4. Perry
5. Gingrich
6. Bachmann
December 31, 2011 at 8:41 am
^ I hate itchy _alls.
December 31, 2011 at 9:08 am
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/30/media_abet_obamas_aloofness_on_tough_issues_112576.html
December 31, 2011 at 10:15 am
Well Joe, I’m hoping the Baltimore Grand Prix returns.
December 31, 2011 at 12:24 pm
“really rolling the dice on that one!”
Not so much blue.
The top three could land in any order. Santorum is surging and Paul and Romney aren’t.
All those Huckabee evangelical voters are looking for a place to land and Bachmann is in free-fall, Gingrich is on his third wife and Perry is just too dumb to take seriously.
Santorum looks good in a sweater-vest and sounds rational; at least to Iowan caucus voters; kind of a cross between Mr. Rogers and Joel Osteen.
I think he could do really well on Tuesday.
December 31, 2011 at 12:54 pm
^ He could win Iowa. The polls are of registered Repub & Indy voters, not necessarily “likely caucus attendees”, and so don’t mean all that much.
December 31, 2011 at 1:00 pm
Rick Santorum……….. all I can say is I can’t vote for someone who genuinely hates a large fraction of the population.
December 31, 2011 at 7:17 pm
@ fritz
I know that Santorum has momentum, but he was so far down, I can’t imagine it taking him to the top. Paul is also in a fall (whether the polls yet show that or not). Mitt is creeping up, and as the rest of the field eats itself, I think he’ll be the last man standing comfortably.
But who knows? I still say your picks give thebiggest payout. If you’re right, you get 5 times the prize (nothing) as I’ll get (still nothing).
December 31, 2011 at 7:27 pm
Eh, I’m leaning towards a Santorum win now. If you’re an Iowa conservative, why wouldn’t you want to stave off The Romney Inevitability with a little news value of your own? They know Mitt’s gonna clean up in NH, and an Iowa win leading up to it seals the deal. I don’t see Iowans being comfortable with that.
December 31, 2011 at 8:10 pm
Justin Bieber sings Let It Be on New Year’s Rockin Eve. Makes you wish the end was near.
December 31, 2011 at 8:18 pm
Who cuts his hair? Must think he’s a Beetle.
December 31, 2011 at 8:29 pm
A New Beetle.
December 31, 2011 at 9:10 pm
The offspring was about a displeased as Kathy Griffin, so I’ve raised him well.
December 31, 2011 at 9:16 pm
Griffin threatened to recreate a Nancy Grace moment but I don’t think she has sufficient attributes to accomlish that.
December 31, 2011 at 9:29 pm
She might not be talking about hers. Just a thought.
December 31, 2011 at 9:38 pm
Ah. Makes sense.
Fox broadcast net has its own NYE thing going but using FNC talent every so often. I’m surprised they have more than one music stage and not simulcasting.
December 31, 2011 at 9:56 pm
I guess the striptease is done. Turner must be proud.
December 31, 2011 at 10:12 pm
Cooper looked incredibly uncomfortable.
December 31, 2011 at 10:14 pm
Lauren Sivan:
“Ironic to see @justinbieber perform at the Times Square ball drop considering his balls have not yet dropped. #NYE2012″
December 31, 2011 at 10:28 pm
There really was only one way to improve upon Bieber’s performance of ‘Let It Be’, and that was to follow it with a Cee Lo Green rendition of ‘Imagine’. #shootmenowandmakeitquick
December 31, 2011 at 11:16 pm
MSNBC’s New Years Resolution should be to give Veronica De La Cruz her own show. I vote for putting her on at 3, replacing Martin Basir’s hour long snarkfest.
January 1, 2012 at 8:18 am
“Rick Santorum……….. all I can say is I can’t vote for someone who genuinely hates a large fraction of the population.’
I missed it – who does he “genuinely hate”?
January 1, 2012 at 8:47 am
“Chris Wallace goes one on one with Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry…”
Just read this little blurb from Fox.
Who the hell cares about ANY of these people at this point? My cat (Missy) is available; she is equally relevant to the race for POTUS at this point. Fox would get better ratings with a test pattern.
January 1, 2012 at 10:21 am
Santorum looks to be the new Iowa flavour of the week. To use a NASCAR analogy he’s this weeks ‘lucky dog’. The fact he hasn’t been vetted yet will allow him to be the big winner on Tuesday.
“who does he “genuinely hate”?”
^ my guess is anyone in the LBGT community; although that could be said for anyone; except Huntsman; in this years Republican race.
January 1, 2012 at 10:24 am
Thomas Roberts subbed for Alex Witt this morning.
This tells me he on a very short leash for his Dayside show and will be unlikely to survive the year as a permanent Dayside host. In fact I’d be surprised to see him make it to this summer.
January 1, 2012 at 11:30 am
I doubt Sen. Santorum could honestly characterise his feelings regarding the LGBTs as “hate”. Disagreeing with his viewpoint is perfectly legit but calling it “hate” is a bit much.
Secondly, thank you for adopting my & Outsider’s spelling of the word “flavour”, Fritz.
January 1, 2012 at 12:19 pm
missy5537 Says:
January 1, 2012 at 8:47 am
I might agree about Perry and Bachmann, but Paul is careening toward a Libertarian candidacy that will inevitably reelect Obama. People need to know as much about him as humanly possible. He’s been skating on the “nice old man” routine for entirely too long.
January 1, 2012 at 12:30 pm
Damn those Democrats with their voter-suppression.
http://electionlawcenter.com/2012/01/01/democratic-controlled-rhode-island-joins-unions-in-implementing-photo-id-laws.aspx?ref=rss
January 1, 2012 at 1:22 pm
“I doubt Sen. Santorum could honestly characterise his feelings regarding the LGBTs as “hate”.”
^I agree that hate probably too strong a word. I was just offering an answer to missy as to Andy might be referring to in his comment.
Who knows he may have been referring to Democrats.:-)
“Secondly, thank you for adopting my & Outsider’s spelling of the word “flavour”, Fritz.”
^There’s a good explanation for my spelling error but I’m not going to ‘honour’ you with the story here.
January 1, 2012 at 1:24 pm
^ Democrats.:-) > should read > Democrats.
Sorry.
January 1, 2012 at 5:36 pm
That HUD foreclosure commercial is funny, but I really feel as though I shouldn’t be laughing at it.
January 1, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Oh Spudly…………
It’s well into the New Year and still no new post for 2012? Are you still celebrating?
January 1, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Well, Laura, praise the Lord re: the democrats/union (same thing) and their push for a photo ID for voting. So great – this will affect exactly TWO voters, since RI is so puny.
But let’s see how this would play out in NY or CA. Forget it!
January 1, 2012 at 9:27 pm
RebelSoulPundit Jack McNey
Nothing says “Jesus Christ is Lord” like single Christians advertising themselves on the internet.
January 1, 2012 at 9:32 pm
^ Funny kid.
January 1, 2012 at 9:34 pm
So young, so innocent.
January 1, 2012 at 9:40 pm
I’m beginning to hate Shirley Temple, and she’s about my mother’s age.
January 1, 2012 at 9:47 pm
“Animal crackers in my soup..”
January 1, 2012 at 10:07 pm
“Beans, beans, the magical fruit…”
January 1, 2012 at 10:19 pm
Weren’t Siegfried and Roy The Magical Fruits?
January 1, 2012 at 10:35 pm
^ I’m pretty sure that’s offensive..
January 2, 2012 at 12:41 am
^ I’m kidding, btw..
January 2, 2012 at 10:01 am
^ I’m sure all who were offended will lodge their complaints after they’re done laughing.