TV Newser’s 2011 Predictions…

TVNewser posted its 2011 Predictions Survey. I voted of course but since mine just went in with everyone else’s, I decided to reveal my votes here…

1) Where will Katie Couric be working at the end of 2011?

This is the question I care the least about but I chose A) CBS because CNN isn’t likely to bring her onboard for 8pm, even if it does end up jettisoning Parker Spitzer. After Connie Chung, Paula Zahn, and Campbell Brown I think CNN has finally learned that the solo straight newsie thing just doesn’t work at that hour. Since Piers Morgan is going to be getting all the celebrity and big player interviews and Anderson Cooper just signed a new deal to keep 360 on the air, there’s reallly no benefit for Couric to jump to CNN anyways. I suppose syndication is a possibility but it probably won’t happen in 2011. That 2011 syndication window has likely closed so it would probably be 2012 at the earliest. So that’s kind of a trick answer because she could announce a syndie deal in 2011 but it’s highly unlikely it would debut in 2011 especially since everyone is already scrambling to pick up Oprah’s turf…including one Anderson Cooper. Choosing “some combination” is a cop out since it doesn’t say which combination.

2) How many of CNN’s primetime programs (Parker Spitzer, Piers Morgan Tonight, AC360) will be airing in the same timeslot, if at all, at the end of the year?

It’s a possibility that CNN will be stubborn in canceling Parker Spitzer, partly out of wanting to have the entire new CNN prime in place for a significant point of time before doing anything, and the show could drag on into 2012. But if the ratings continue as they have, I doubt it, especially since it’s Piers Morgan’s lead-in. Obviously barring some catastrophe at launch Morgan’s show is going to stick for the entire year. Cooper just signed a new CNN deal to give him the syndication thing so I don’t see 360 going away either. So the most shows disappearing in 2011 from CNN prime would be 1 at best, which is why I chose 2 for this answer.

3) Will Fox Business Network or Bloomberg become rated by Nielsen in 2011?

I have no idea what stage Bloomberg is in with regards to the ratings process but I have to assume FBN has been stuck at the doorstep of Stage 3…probably for a while now. Because of this there’s always the chance that FBN could cross over to ratings release at any given moment. They certainly like trumpeting numbers that aren’t official when it suits them like when they crowed over clobbering CNBC on election night. The question has always been WHEN will FBN get rated officially, not WILL it. With Bloomberg it’s the exact opposite…the question is more a matter of “will” than “when”. So I would expect FBN to go public with the ratings first. But will they in 2011? Somehow I have a feeling they will. I can’t say the same about Bloomberg.

4) Will CBS News or ABC News strike a deal with a cable partner in 2011?

I said neither would but if one did it might be ABC possibly doing a deal with Bloomberg. CBS just can’t close the deal with CNN and after trying off and on all these years and failing I don’t see the two ever coming together unless there’s a change in CBS leadership.

5) How many anchor changes will be made on MSNBC’s dayside programming in 2011?

Did you come up with this one Ariens? It felt like you.

I chose 1 but that was just to cover my ass. The reality is I don’t see why MSNBC should make any anchor changes in 2011. It doesn’t need to bring on more anchors, it already has more than it can put on air. I could run down the list of dayside anchors and give a reason why each is unlikely to be taken off. But more importantly changing the anchors isn’t the solution at this point. They’ve got the right anchors there now pretty much in the right places. The problem is now one of news direction, editorial, resources, and storytelling. Most off all what’s required is perseverance to give the formats time to build something. They’ve done three reboots in the past two years. That’s two reboots too many. MSNBC will never get traction if it’s constantly changing things around.

6) Will the primetime average cable news viewership increase or decrease from 2010?

It’s a non-election year so those are always tough on viewership. If there’s some big story that pops up in 2011 that will drag on for months, there’s a possibility the viewership will rise. But it would take a pretty big story running a long time to do that. We had the Gulf Disaster and the Chilean Miner stories this year and viewership still was down. But just because things don’t go up, doesn’t mean they’ll drop a lot. We had a pretty big falloff this year. So I think the viewership will stay the same more or less.

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22 Responses to “TV Newser’s 2011 Predictions…”

  1. whitneymuse Says:

    Learning that liberal echoing doesn’t sell well when the public knows reality.

  2. cbs news will keep katie. cbs will always be number 3 in the evening news game. actually katie does a better job that brian williams OR diane sawyer!

    fbn..lord help….fox releases the numbers only when they win.. and when they win it’s usually non business programming. i look for fbn leaning toward more entertaining programming versus business news.

    and of course the fox nuts will continue to flock to their favorite gathering place to hear all the airheads blow off their steam.

  3. starbroker Says:

    It’s funny how Bloomberg always gets the much bigger pass. FBN has been around for 3 years/3 months or so but look how long BloomberTV has been around.

    Heck, Bloomberg was in 49 million homes BEFORE FBN even went on the air:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/02/business/worldbusiness/02iht-bloom.4.7352652.html?_r=1

    They weren’t worried about being rated then. You only need around 40 million homes. Just like Fox Soccer Channel (rated back in 2008 –still only around 4o M homes)

    http://brandedcontent.adage.com/cableguide10/network.php?id=10

    But what about FBN:

    Network Profile

    •Target audience:
    •Affluent, business decision-makers, financial services professionals, small-business owners, C-suite executives, active investors
    •FOX Business Network’s viewers are valuable consumers, with an average household income of $250,000 and a median net worth of $1.4 million; 41 percent have more than $1 million in all financial accounts.2
    •Subscriber growth
    •A projected 60 million-plus subscribers in 2010
    •Available on DirecTV, Dish, FIOS and U-Verse

    http://brandedcontent.adage.com/cableguide10/network.php?id=8

    GAC has been over 50 million homes since 2007, but you haven’t seen Scripps Howard go make them a Nielsen Rated station.

    Why should FBN worry about? Bloomberg should be far more worried. They make more money off advertising. But here’s FBN, who will probably double their ad revenue this year. And now in 60 million homes.

    They’ve crushed CNBC on election night and Cavuto has beaten CNBC in the ratings different times.

    They are also redoing carriage contacts and they will pick up far more than the .11 to .13 cents they are currently getting. Fox can uses the FNC leverage to gain more.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if in the new deals FBN starts getting MORE than MSNBC (.15) while FNC moves from the current (.75 to $1 for some) on up.

    I’d stay unrated…continue to increase ad revenue like they’ve been doing….continue to increase the carriage fee (like is happening). Continue to work on solidifying a total lineup that works. Leak the true ratings when it serves the purpose but not allowing the competition to use them to crow at other times.

    But while Bloomberg will continue to hide from being rated, we can look for CNBC to still after 20 years or so not be able to come up with a prime time business line up that works. Instead more MOVIE NIGHTS and game shows and other nonsense.

  4. Harry, please go to another site where the same regurgitated talking points are welcome with open arms.

  5. Leak the true ratings when it serves the purpose but not allowing the competition to use them to crow at other times.

    That’s a cynical chickensh** strategy and if they go that route I’ll pound them for it every opportunity I get.

  6. I think CNN is going to be stubborn about Parker Spitzer for at least 9 more months, insisting it “just needs time”.

    Cable news ratings will never hit the ’08 election peaks again. “News on the internet” will have a stronger foothold by 2012.

  7. wheresthebeef09 Says:

    LOL @ Starbroker
    3+ years later, and he’s still defending a loser like FBN.

    Give it up already.

    Just to illustrate how massively below expectations FBN has performed, just read this passage:

    “When he launched Fox Business Network in 2007, Rupert Murdoch said he would spend $300 million in hopes of beating CNBC in the ratings in three years. Fox Business Network has turned out to be a very expensive pursuit.”

    >Not only is FBN NOT beating CNBC, they haven’t even released their numbers. The network got $25m in ad revenue last year; less than the total gain of CNBC in 2010. Enough said.

  8. starbroker Says:

    Of course what Where leaves out is that Rupert hasn’t spent anywhere near $300 million on FBN. They probably haven’t even spent $200 million.

    And of course Rupert didn’t predict the huge downfall of the market/economy during that time either.

    CNBC’s ratings have nosedived during that time.

    But here is Fox who doubled their ad revenue in their 2nd year on the air. They are in 60 million homes. They get almost the same carriage fee as MSNBC.

    In their 2nd year of operation (2010) they will probably have gross income of around $110 million.

    In 2009, FBN already almost tied BLOOMBERG for revenue (only $2M less).

    And in 2011, FBN’s 3rd year of operation they are expected to break-even.

    But then I don’t expect people who don’t work in the industry to understand reality. Much like the idiots who call in to ESPN radio shows and talk about pro football when they didn’t even play college football themselves but they are somehow experts in their own mind on the subject.

  9. starbroker Says:

    The network got $25m in ad revenue last year; less than the total gain of CNBC in 2010>

    Uh no! Do the math! Bloomberg would see a 19% gain in ad revenue this year to $80M. Which would be around $12M gain.

    But of course, last year (2009) WHEN TOTAL REVENUES were figured, Fox Business Network was only $2 Million behind Bloomberg.

    When will people ever learn?! Subscriber fees trump ad revenue almost all the time! But then people who work behind a counter serving burgers don’t realize those ins and outs.

    Of course its funny to see you brag about Bloomberg who have been on the air since 1994 and you aren’t whining because they aren’t rated. Nor can you comprehend that FBN had almost the same revenue as they did last year ($2M less).

    You want to compare revenues of BloombergTV who has been on the air for 16 years with FBN’s 3 years! ha ha Or CNBC’s 21 YEARS!

  10. And in 2011, FBN’s 3rd year of operation they are expected to break-even.

    FBN launched mid 2007. That makes 2011 its fourth year of operation not its third. Nice try shaving off a year to make things more favorable…

  11. whitneymuse Says:

    My Cable company doesn’t even carry FBN; and, frankly it would be better if the programmers at Fox News would bench Cavuto and get one of his high-paid others to take over his daily slot at market close daily. and perhaps the lame remarks about “if you don’t get it” …will help their ratings over time. Cavuto is a Sr. VP. and someone should take some responsibility over there. I switch to hear Kudlow’s commentary when I’m able to do so. I have no idea what FBN is like since I don’t get it, at all. I used to like Klaman’s commentary when she was at CNBC.

  12. […] Inside Cable News Unvarnished News & Opinion on Cable News « TV Newser’s 2011 Predictions… […]

  13. starbroker Says:

    Cavutos (FBN) show has beaten CNBC at times (while being in 45M less homes).

    Of course FNC should show “best of” FBN shows on the weekend to give viewers a look at what they are missing. Would be far better than more reruns of Beck etc.

    Then of course NewsCorp hasn’t spent anything to market the network other than ads in their own papers & on their own networks.

    And it took them several years to get away from the “blonde” ads and cheesecake stuff. And dumping the terrible fluff like “Happy Hour”.

    Who wouldn’t rather listen to Lou Dobbs than Rebecca Diamond. Don’t even get me started on Cody Willard.

    Stossel and Lou Dobbs have been great additions to the lineup.

  14. Of course FNC should show “best of” FBN shows on the weekend to give viewers a look at what they are missing. Would be far better than more reruns of Beck etc.

    I don’t have an opinion on this one way or another except to point out that FBN couldn’t get the kind of deal CNBC had that allowed them to air so many damn infomercials. So they sorta gotta put on something whether it’s tape or live.

    Stossel and Lou Dobbs have been great additions to the lineup.

    I’ll see your Stossel and Dobbs and raise you one Gasparino. Charlie’s the best hire they’ve made in the past two years. Better than Imus.

  15. starbroker Says:

    Of course FNC should show “best of” FBN shows on the weekend to give viewers a look at what they are missing. Would be far better than more reruns of Beck etc.

    I don’t have an opinion on this one way or another except to point out that FBN couldn’t get the kind of deal CNBC had that allowed them to air so many damn infomercials. So they sorta gotta put on something whether it’s tape or live.>>

    You missed my point. I said FNC (Fox News) should show some BEST OF …of the shows on FBN. Take a weeks worth of some of the shows and make a “best of” and air them on FNC.

    For FNC to air the “best of” FBN programming on the weekend (mornings/afternoon–whatever), they would expose FBN to people who don’t get the channel or currently watch it. For the most part, they have no idea what they are missing. So why should they be bugging their cable operator?

    At least they did air the Stossel piece “10 Failed Promises From The Gov’t”. Thats a start at least.

    Gasparino probably is for long term. The Imus move probably gave them 8 million more homes to 10 million and it brought some of his viewers over.

    I wish they had been able to snag Erin Burnett as well. CNBC was smart re-signing her way ahead of time and throwing around the offers of Today show appearances and Meet The Press. Although, how many has she actually gotten lately?

    Alot of their success of course will be tied to the economy.

  16. MSNBC sends me to FNC on the weekends because of their damn docs. One surefire way for FNC to send me packing for CNN is to shove a bunch of business programming down my throat. No thanks.

  17. wheresthebeef09 Says:

    “Where leaves out is that Rupert hasn’t spent anywhere near $300 million on FBN. They probably haven’t even spent $200 million.”

    > Proof?

    “In their 2nd year of operation (2010) they will probably have gross income of around $110 million.”

    > Proof?

    “And in 2011, FBN’s 3rd year of operation they are expected to break-even.”

    a) You can’t count
    b) Proof?

    You’re full of bullsh*t, and pretty much everyone on this blog knows it by now – even the moderator. But keep babbling if it makes you feel better about the perpetual loser otherwise known as FBN.

  18. Those are all his Super Double Secret Insider figures that you don’t have access to because you’re not “in the industry”. Trust him..he knows what he’s doing..

  19. You missed my point. I said FNC (Fox News) should show some BEST OF …of the shows on FBN. Take a weeks worth of some of the shows and make a “best of” and air them on FNC.

    Yup. I missed your point. I saw “FNC” and thought “FBN”. I guess it all depends on which FBN shows get run on FNC. Personally I think the one with the best crossover potential that would be generated by FNC repeats is not Stossel, who tends to get too preachy, but The Judge. Dobbs too, when his show launches.

    They only drawback to re-airing Stossel, Napolitano, Dobbs or anyone else from prime is that it doesn’t bolster FBN’s brand as a business channel. Instead it buttresses FBN’s brand as an opinion channel, which could risk hurting FNC in prime. The only way to butress FBN as a business channel on FNC is to air business programming on FNC. One way would be to reboot the Saturday Business Block with all FBN dayside talent. They have Asman and Casone on their already. Lose Cavuto and Buttner and replace them with Claman and Varney. Of course Cavuto would never be dropped. I still think Buttner is not long for FNC given how small a role she has on that network and FBN.

  20. My personal bias, obviously, but I think news should be on the news channel, and business on the business channel. How many times have I tuned in CNN on Saturday morning to Al Velshi blabbing about the stock market? FNC has live news, The Journal Report, and Fox News Watch. Leave it alone.

  21. tinafromtampa Says:

    This whole story-line that CNN does straight news needs to be put to bed. CNN says it does straight news, then does POV, but claims it’s not POV. That is why CNN fails. They simply need to admit that they are a left-leaning entityand stop pretending they are down the middle, straight news. Paula didn’t do straight news, Campbell didn’t do straight news. The lack of success of CNN is due solely to it’s not admiting what it is or does. P/S do not do straigt news; again, putting on a pretend conservative with a die-hard liberal isn’t going to get any viewers.

    CNN just needs to admit they lean left and stop the false advertising of a straight news organization.

  22. tina: AMEN!

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