Flawed Logic…

Mutlichannel News’ Mike Reynolds has FBN/FNC’s VP of Distribution making an…ahem…interesting claim

Carry, executive vice president of distribution for FNC and FBN, estimated that Dish has lost some 90,000 subscribers since the channels were removed from the provider’s 14 million subscribers late on Dec. 20.

Sounds impressive…that’s .6% of Dish’s subscribers (if my math is right and after last time I wouldn’t trust it 100%). But what’s the attribution?

He based the total on the number of viewers that have reached out to the http://www.keepfoxnews.com website and 888-numbers, and others that have contacted Dish directly.

And that’s where Carry’s logic runs aground for that assumes a near 100% follow through. You can’t make that assumption. Certainly a significant percentage of the 90,000 did go “all the way” and cancelled outright. But we don’t know what percentage did go all the way and what percentage U-turned upon hearing what the terms for cancellation would be.

And then there’s this…

But you can’t fault Carry for trying. This is after all as much a PR war with Dish as it is a substantive one. So Carry is naturally going to try and paint this in the most favorable light possible. This is why you see Carry also give Reynolds completely vacuous figures like the 350,000 people who either called about or visited the site. Nobody cares about who called about or visited the site…it could be anyone. What matters is who followed through and cancelled. Carry doesn’t have those numbers. Dish has those numbers. And Dish isn’t going to say.

But since Carry extrapolated, I will also extrapolate. Reynolds wrote that there hasn’t been any communication between the two since December 20th, the day FNC yanked its channels (I’m taking Dish’s side in the “who did what” back and forth because FNC’s commentary in that matter has been non-specific compared to Dish’s statement on the matter. FNC could have outright denied it yanked the channels and to the best of my knowledge it hasn’t). We can extrapolate that means whatever damage has been done to Dish’s subscriber base so far it hasn’t been enough to bring it back to the table. Not yet, anyways.

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